如何完美风暴正走向化石燃料资产

如何完美风暴正走向化石燃料资产如何完美风暴正走向化石燃料资产天然气精炼厂在新墨西哥州,美国的墓地旁边。 图片来源:Flickr的克里斯蒂娜许

煤,石油和天然气部门警告说,如果在巴黎举行的联合国峰会达成限制气候变化的全球协议的资产数万亿美元可以搁浅。

化石燃料行业可能会浪费高达US $ 2.2万亿(£1.45田纳西州)在未来的十年,如果它在追求,在世界上被证明不经济开始转向对碳回来项目仍然存在。

An independent thinktank, the 碳追踪倡议 (CTI)表示,行业面临的因素,“完美风暴”,包括国际行动,限制全球平均温度2˚C高于工业化前水平,并在清洁技术的快速发展。

该CTI报告称不会有任何需要新的煤矿,石油需求将达到顶峰周围2020和天然气的增长将令人失望业界预期,如果世界各国领导人同意,然后实现,以满足联合国的承诺所需要的政策,以保持低于2气候变化˚C - 大多数政府同意的门槛。

下周 在巴黎的联合国气候变化会议 will be trying to reach such a global agreement.

Excess Of Supply

The report warns: “If the industry misreads future demand by underestimating technology and policy advances, this can lead to an excess of supply and create stranded assets. This is where shareholders should be concerned.”

James Leaton, CTI’s head of research and co-author of the report, says: “Too few energy companies recognise that they will need to reduce supply of their carbon-intensive products to avoid pushing us beyond the internationally-recognised carbon budget.

“Clean technology and climate policy are already reducing fossil fuel demand. Misreading these trends will destroy shareholder value. Companies need to apply 2˚C stress tests to their business models now.”

The US has the greatest financial exposure, with $412 billion of unneeded fossil fuel projects to 2025 at risk of becoming stranded assets. They are followed by Canada ($220 bn), China ($179 bn), Russia ($147 bn), and Australia ($103 bn).

The companies that represent the biggest risk to the climate and to their shareholders include oil majors Royal Dutch Shell, Pemex and Exxon Mobil, and coal miners Peabody, Coal India, and Glencore. Around 20%-25% of oil and gas majors’ potential investment is in projects that will not be needed in a 2˚C scenario, and cancelling them would mean seeing very little or no growth (known as ex-growth).

“Fossil fuel incumbents seem intent on wasting capital trying to hold onto growth by doing what they have always done”

The report examines production to 2035 and capital investment to 2025. It warns that energy companies must avoid projects that would generate 156 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (156Gt CO2) by 2035 in order to be consistent with the carbon budget in the 国际能源机构 450 demand scenario, which sets out an energy pathway with a 50% chance of meeting the 2˚C target.

Mark Fulton, a CTI adviser and co-author of the report, says the group had found that coal had “the most significant overhang of unneeded supply in terms of carbon of all fossil fuels on any scenario. No new mines are needed globally in a 2˚C world”.

Carbon Tracker warned last month that big energy companies are ignoring rapid advances in clean technologies − such as renewables, battery storage and electric cars − that threaten to undermine their business models.

Anthony Hobley, CEO of Carbon Tracker, says: “Business history is littered with examples of incumbents [dominant companies] who fail to see the transition coming.

“Fossil fuel incumbents seem intent on wasting capital trying to hold onto growth by doing what they have always done. . . Our report offers these companies both a warning and a strategy for avoiding significant value destruction.”

The report says: “It is the end of the road for expansion of the coal sector.” And on oil, it concludes: “In the 450 scenario, oil demand peaks around 2020. This means the oil sector does not need to continue to grow, which is inconsistent with the narrative of many companies.”

In a 2˚C world, gas growth will be “at a lower level than expected under a business as usual scenario”.

Unproven Technology

Carbon Tracker’s analysis assumes that 碳捕获和储存 (CCS) will remove 24Gt of CO2 by 2035, but says this would require a huge expansion of CCS − a technology that remains unproven at a commercial scale, and which many scientists doubt will work soon enough.

In the UK, a significant group of corporate investors is being warned that they may need to screen out fossil fuels, as many do with other types of investment, such as tobacco, armaments and pornography.

warning stems from a legal opinion expressed by a prominent lawyer, Christopher McCall QC.

This says that it is at least arguable that investing in fossil fuels could be said to be irreconcilable with the intentions behind charities concerned with the environment, health, poverty reduction, and “the consequences of dangerous climate change”.

Charities in England and Wales have a combined income of almost £70 bn (US$106 bn), and the legal opinion is being referred to the body that regulates them, the 慈善委员会 - 气候新闻网

作者简介

亚历克斯·柯比是一个英国记者亚历克斯·柯比 是一家专业从事环境问题的英国记者。 他曾在各种身份在 英国广播公司 (BBC)近几年20离开了BBC在1998作为自由撰稿人的工作。 他还提供 传媒技巧 培训公司,大学和非政府组织。 他也是目前环境记者 BBC新闻网和托管 BBC电台4的环境系列, 成本核算地球。 他还经常为 “卫报”气候新闻网。 他也写了一个专栏 BBC野生动物 杂志。

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