Lars Poyansky / Shutterstock




这些评论是最近在《 Sun》上针对以下内容发布的最受欢迎的回复: 一篇文章 by the broadcaster David Attenborough on the climate crisis.由广播公司David Attenborough主持的有关气候危机的报道。 But don't be fooled into thinking the same scapegoating can't be found below the line in a more progressive newspaper such as但是,不要误以为在诸如以下这样的更先进的报纸中,找不到同一替罪羊。 守护者 –即使种族主义不太明显。

人口增加确实使它更难 对待环境 in the right way.以正确的方式。 But there's no quick fix, as even the most conservative projections suggest a global population of但是没有快速的解决方法,因为即使是最保守的预测也表明, 超过8十亿 通过2050。

幸运的是 新的研究 我们发现,到60年,使用比今天少10%的能源,可以为2050亿全球人口提供体面的生活水平。这比目前预测的到75年全世界消耗的能源少2050% 现在的轨迹 –或与世界使用的能量一样多 在1960s中.

到10年,如何使用2050年前的能源,使60亿人过上良好的生活数据世界/ Vaclav Smil(2017), CC BY


美国和澳大利亚等全球北方国家目前消耗的能源最多 每人。 But this could be slashed by 90%, while still guaranteeing decent living standards for all.但这可以削减XNUMX%,同时仍然保证所有人的体面生活水平。 And the remaining energy requirements could likely come from clean, renewable sources.其余的能源需求可能来自清洁的可再生资源。




It also requires drastically reducing how much energy and resources some people consume.这也需要大幅度减少一些人消耗的能源和资源。 There's no longer room for second homes, second cars, 20 minute power showers in the second bathroom, biannual upgrades of electronic gadgets, new shoes for every season, or plates piled high with red meat seven nights a week.第二间房屋,第二辆汽车,第二间浴室内XNUMX分钟的强力淋浴,电子设备的半年两次升级,每个季节的新鞋或每周七个晚上都堆满了红肉的盘子,不再有空间。

我们需要控制 过度消费 富裕阶层的水平提高了3.5亿人的生活水平 每天少于$ 5.50美元。 In other words, we need to flatten global and national inequalities.换句话说,我们需要消除全球和国家的不平等。 In our study, we allowed for inequalities in energy consumption to persist only where need dictates.在我们的研究中,我们允许能源消耗的不平等仅在需要指示的情况下持续存在。 In especially cold or hot climates, more energy is needed for heating and cooling.在特别是寒冷或炎热的气候中,加热和冷却需要更多的能量。 In sparsely populated countries, people need to travel more to meet their needs.在人口稀少的国家,人们需要旅行更多才能满足其需求。

但是,我们的意思是 体面的生活? 该 我们使用的概念 is a far cry from that defined by consumer culture.与消费者文化定义的相去甚远。 But it's a long way from anything resembling poverty.但这距离贫困还很遥远。 There'd be adequately sized housing that maintains a comfortable temperature year-round, with clean, running hot water.房屋要有足够的尺寸,可以全年保持舒适的温度,并有干净的自来水。 A washing machine, fridge-freezer, laptops and smartphones in every home.每个家庭都有洗衣机,冰箱,冰柜,笔记本电脑和智能手机。 Enough hospitals and schools to guarantee universal access, and three times as much public transport per person as is currently provided in the world's wealthier countries.有足够的医院和学校来保证普及服务,每人的公共交通是世界上较富裕国家目前提供的三倍。

(到10年,2050亿人如何使用60年前的能源生活得很好)减少汽车,扩大公共交通。 JPL设计/快门

Clearly, when people argue that environmentalists want a return to us all living in caves, this isn't what they have in mind.显然,当人们辩称环保主义者想要让我们所有人生活在山洞中时,这并不是他们的想法。 That, or they're imagining rather luxurious caves.那,或者他们正在想象相当豪华的洞穴。 The major reductions in consumption necessary don't present barriers to anyone achieving a high standard of living.必要的大量减少消费量不会对任何人实现高生活水平构成障碍。 Solving the ecological crisis doesn't have to be the attack on modern living that many fear.解决生态危机并不一定是许多人担心的对现代生活的攻击。

But it does represent an attack on modern life in many other ways.但这确实以许多其他方式代表着对现代生活的攻击。 This vision can't be reconciled with a system that requires这种愿景无法与需要 永久增长 经济产出以维持就业水平,或促使工厂转移到不可避免的生态破坏猖and且工资勉强维持基本生活的地方。


生态崩溃并不是资本主义似乎装备不足的唯一21世纪挑战。 恐惧比比皆是 人工智能和自动化将带来大量失业,不平等加剧,甚至 生物种姓 of superhumans.超人。 A world of decent living standards using minimal energy requires flattening global inequalities.一个世界上生活水平低,消耗最少的能源就需要消除全球不平等现象。 But these developments promise to push us precisely the other way.但是,这些事态发展有望以另一种方式推动我们前进。

不管喜欢与否,变革即将到来。 我们可能会看到 the entirety of Uber replaced by self-driving vehicles, and robotic factories producing an abundance of synthetic meat.整个Uber都被自动驾驶汽车所取代,而机器人工厂则生产大量的合成肉。 Even large fractions of healthcare and legal work are likely to be outsourced to algorithms fed by torrents of globally sourced data.甚至很大一部分医疗保健和法律工作都可能外包给由全球数据洪流所提供的算法。 All this alongside a rapidly ageing population, requiring increasing amounts of care.所有这些以及快速老龄化的人口,需要越来越多的护理。

Can business as usual cope?照常可以应付吗? In an increasingly automated future, no work means no wages –在日益自动化的未来,没有工作就意味着没有工资– 谁再买 all the stuff automated factories produce?自动化工厂生产的所有东西? It may seem unthinkable, but increasing economic activity enough to keep a world of 10 billion employed nine-to-five alongside all that automated production would mean the planet would almost certainly be toast.这似乎是不可想象的,但是不断增加的经济活动足以使一个拥有XNUMX亿人口的世界保持XNUMX到XNUMX的世界,以及所有自动化生产,这意味着这个星球几乎肯定是一片土司。

在一个 新大陆 of intelligent machines doing much of the work, looming environmental limits and an increasing fraction of the population too old to work, wages and money may cease to make sense.大部分工作的智能机器,迫在眉睫的环境限制以及越来越大的人口老龄化而无法工作,工资和金钱可能不再有意义。 We'll need to totally rethink our systems of ownership and distribution.我们需要完全重新考虑我们的所有权和分配制度。

And why not?那么为何不? The technologies underpinning automation are an outcome of hundreds of years of human ingenuity (and blind luck).支持自动化的技术是数百年来人类创造力(和运气不佳)的产物。 Why should the benefits be captured by a minority of super-rich owners?为什么少数超级富豪可以享受这些好处?

普遍基本服务 –可能需要满足公共需求,包括住房,医疗,教育和交通的公共供应,以满足每个人的基本需求。 This could provide the basis for decent living in a world with less work, allowing people the time to undertake all the unpaid care work required to support children, the mentally ill and, increasingly, the elderly.这可以为工作量少的世界中的体面生活提供基础,使人们有时间进行所需的所有无偿护理工作,以抚养儿童,精神病患者以及越来越多的老年人。

我们还有很长的路要走 乌托邦式的愿景 of luxury for all, but providing decent living standards to all is already technologically possible.人人享有奢侈,但在技术上已经可以为所有人提供体面的生活水平。 When the alternative is ecological catastrophe and social breakdown, aspiring to such a world seems not only desirable, but essential.当替代方案是生态灾难和社会崩溃时,向往这样的世界似乎不仅是可取的,而且是必不可少的。谈话


Joel Millward-Hopkins,可持续发展博士后研究员, 利兹大学

本文重新发表 谈话 根据知识共享许可。 阅读 原创文章.





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